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Gammel 22nd May 2019, 03:50 PM
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Registreringsdato: Nov 2008
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Standard Fake News eller politiske journalister

Ny rapport fordobler vandstandsstigning: »Indre København kan blive oversvømmet« Jyllandsposten

rapporten: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2...b-figures-data


Uha, uha dommedag på vej. Problemet er blot at den rapport som der henvises til er baseret på en forværring af klimascenariet RCP8.5 som er et "dommedagsscenarie" med en masse urealistiske antagelser om befolkningstilvækst, økonomisk og teknologisk udvikling m.m.

IPCC:
https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/dd...cess/RCPs.html

Citer:
Uses and limits of the RCPs
While each single RCP is based on an internally consistent set of socioeconomic assumptions, the four RCPs together cannot be treated as a set with consistent internal socioeconomic logic. For example, RCP8.5 cannot be used as a no-climate-policy socioeconomic reference scenario for the other RCPs because RCP8.5’s socioeconomic, technology, and biophysical assumptions differ from those of the other RCPs.

Each RCP could result from different combinations of economic, technological, demographic, policy, and institutional futures. For example, the second-to-lowest RCP could be considered as a moderate mitigation scenario. However, it is also consistent with a baseline scenario that assumes a global development that focuses on technological improvements and a shift to service industries but does not aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a goal in itself (similar to the B1 scenario of the SRES scenarios).

The proper uses and limits of the RCPs are detailed with the RCP release data at the website below.




Judith Curry evaluerer RCP 8.5
https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/13/a...enario-rcp8-5/

Citer:
This is a material misrepresentation of RCP8.5. Scientists then use RCP8.5 to construct horrific visions of the future. They seldom mention its unlikely assumptions.
...

RCP8.5 assumes a nightmarish world even before climate impacts, resulting from substantial changes to long-standing trends
. It provides AR5 with an essential worst case scenario necessary for conservative planning.

Jyllandspostens journalister vælger at tag forskning der forværre antagelser baseret på "a nightmarish world" som baseres på voldsomme brud på eksisterende udviklinger. Hvor er virklighedsfornemmelsen hos JP?

Sidst redigeret af Vymer : 22nd May 2019 kl. 03:54 PM.
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