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Gammel 12th August 2010, 07:43 AM
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Standard Og Kinas valutamanipulation begynder at give problemer

Tim Duy's Fed Watch: Renminbi-Yen-Dollar Collision Course

Kinas forsøg på at tørre regningen af på Japan bliver ikke endnu imødegået. Hvornår kommer turen til Euroen.

Interestingly, to the extent that China makes a minor adjustment to the Dollar peg, authorities simply redirect some of those capital flows to Japan.

Note that, arguably, Japan is the least capable of absorbing those flows. Seriously, Japan is the biggest basket case in the industrialized world (although US policymakers are sprinting to keep up). The all too predictable outcome ...

Og en rigtig saftig observation

You see, currency manipulation is considered out of style for everyone but the Chinese authorities. Japan is expected to continue to play ball with the G-20 stance. Even if it makes little economic sense - a good case can be made that the best policy option for at least two nations, the US and Japan, is to easing quantitatively via the purchase of foreign currencies, just not each other's. (As an aside, I find the obligatory line about the importance of "international coordination" just plain silly. It seems that China has managed to independently manipulate currency values quite effectively).

Now, suppose Japanese officials believe that intervention is required regardless of the G-20. Presumably, they will give US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner a phone call to at least keep him in the loop, if not to receive his implicit consent. One wonders if Geithner will recognize what he would be consenting to: Japanese intervention, if it occurs, means that Chinese authorities managed to get Japan to acquire their Dollar reserves for them. Instead of buying Dollars, China buys Yen, which in turn induce Japan to buy Dollars. This maintains the artificial capital flows to the US while allowing China to escape accusations of being a "currency manipulator."

Sidst redigeret af Vymer : 12th August 2010 kl. 07:51 AM.
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